Friday, December 2, 2022

PM Anwar's cabinet may have consolidated the Malay vote but PAS remains a problem- As minister solely in charge of Petronas Anwar can easily buy PAS support by increasing Terrenganu's share of oil revenue, and order JDA pipelines to be built in Kelantan

 by Ganesh Sahathevan 



Source: Exploring the Thai and Malaysian decommissioning landscapes – identifying opportunities and challenges for Australia
Source:Peninsular Malaysia Gas Supplyand its Challenges 


Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has named his new cabinet and his selection appears to  have consolidated the support of the Malay votes, but for PAS and its supporters. Outwardly PAS seems to be vehemently opposed to Anwar and his PH coalition. 

However as minister solely in charge of Petronas Anwar is in a position to  buy PAS support by diverting Petronas funds into the PAS controlled states of Terrenganu and Kelantan,  He can do so by increasing  Terrenganu's share of oil revenue, and order gas extracted from the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area (JDA) to be landed in Malaysia at Kelantan, rather than Songkhla in Thailand, and from there into Malaysia.  

A decision to build new gas infrastructure with a base in Kelantan  is likely to bring billions into the Kelantan economy and the Terrenganu Government's Treasury , as well as PAS' political fund. It is understood that it for these very reasons that previous governments have been disinclined to pursue what would seem like a sensible avenue for Malaysia's JDA sourced gas supplies(see maps above). Today however Malay unity (to the exclusion of all others)is almost within grasp, and the potential for such a project to consolidate that project may well expedite the project. Achieving that unity will of course consolidate Anwar's position as prime minister for many years to come. 


The second limb of a Petronas financed purchase of PAS support is relatively easy and would involve agreeing to the Terrenganu Government's decades old demand for a greater share of the oil revenue. This will require appeasing the other oil producing states especially Sabah and Sarawak but PH did promise during the GE14 campaign that it would increase the state's take from 5% to 20% of revenue. 


Meanwhile, the appointment of Zahid Hamidi as Deputy Prime Minister is likely to ensure that UMNO will not lose control of its assets. 


END 


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