Michelle Chan
The standard Australian narrative on China is that China's ascendence as an economic and military superpower is unstoppable. Consequently the Australian view has been, effectively, one of acquiescence to China's expansion into the South China Sea.
Against this narrative is this view out of Singapore, which seems closer to reality:
Concerned about appearing like its grip on power is slipping, the ruling Communist Party is doubling down on its rhetoric and on its nationalistic agenda, which includes control of the South China Sea, experts said.
Beijing is keen to foster a narrative that the US is retreating as a global power to solidify its hold on the region, said Ian Storey, senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
"It will want to show Southeast Asian claimants that American military power is on the decline and its commitment to the region is waning," Storey said. "(It will want to show that) the economic problems that China is facing will not impact its policy on the South China Sea."
Storey's comments have been reported recently with regards tensions in the South China Sea between Malaysia and Indonesia on the one side, and China on the other. The tensions have recently involved confrontations at sea, which have involved US and Australian naval ships.
While Storey's views are refreshing it cannot be said that they are particularly insightful. China's economic problems have been well known for at least the past five years, and it is to be expected that China will use force projection to bluff in this game of geopolitical poker.
Scott Morrison's National Security Advisor until very recently was Michelle Chan, who is considered an expert on South East Asia.How she missed what Ian Storey has articulated raises further questions about her advice to Morrison and the government.
Scott Morrison's National Security Advisor until very recently was Michelle Chan, who is considered an expert on South East Asia.How she missed what Ian Storey has articulated raises further questions about her advice to Morrison and the government.
TO B EREAD WITH
China's recent record suggests dwindling capacity to finance Australia (and Dan Andrew's) economic recovery-Ban of Australian barley, beef may be an attempt to mask weakening financial position;Australia naive to believe that Chinese money can underwrite deficit . In search of Chinese cash,Australia runs the risk of suffering long term damage like Malaysia
by Ganesh Sahathevan
Australian politicians and businessmen, and their senior advisors. work on the assumption that China is and will be an inexhaustible spring of cash. Even highly respected senior advisers like Dennis Richardson seem to think so.
Meanwhile China's financial problems are a matter of public record.The BBC for example reported in September 2019 that China's economy has been slowing for the better part of the past decade. Accompanying the BBC story were the following graphs:
The Chinese boycott of Australian barley and beef is probably attributable to Australia's demand for an investigation into the source of the Wuhan virus. However it is also likely that the boycotts are a means of deferring imports so as to conserve foreign currency, without having to admit to weak local demand.
Australian politicians and businessmen, and their senior advisors. work on the assumption that China is and will be an inexhaustible spring of cash. Even highly respected senior advisers like Dennis Richardson seem to think so.
Meanwhile China's financial problems are a matter of public record.The BBC for example reported in September 2019 that China's economy has been slowing for the better part of the past decade. Accompanying the BBC story were the following graphs:
In addition export revenues have been weakened by the worldwide Wuhan virus induced shuttering of businesses around the world.
Given the above Australia runs the risk of suffering long term economic damage by persisting with its reliance on China.There are many examples of the adverse consequences of doing so, but Malaysia provides an example of how a prosperous country with strong economic growth can ruin itself with a combination of mismanagement and over-reliance on Chinese money.
Given the above Australia runs the risk of suffering long term economic damage by persisting with its reliance on China.There are many examples of the adverse consequences of doing so, but Malaysia provides an example of how a prosperous country with strong economic growth can ruin itself with a combination of mismanagement and over-reliance on Chinese money.
Malaysia under the leadership of Najib Razak looked to Chinese investment to cover-up the theft of billions from the 1MDB sovereign wealth fund, and the consequences of that theft for the broader Malaysian economy. Unfortunately for Najib the cash was slow to arrive,and when it did it was in the form of loans that had to be
renegotiated. The Malaysian economy remains in a vegetative state,and the its debt to China remains.
Australia, and in particular the premier of Victoria, Dan Andrews, seem determined to go down that same part despite the dangers.
END
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