Saturday, April 4, 2020

Nicholas Taleb says Covid-19 is not a ‘black swan’ : Black Swan defence not available to Commonwealth & state governments ,public servants desperate to evade liability for Wuhan Virus loss of life, incomes and wealth

by Ganesh Sahathevan

"Anything it takes" Morrison may not have understood that the "best in the world" medical advice he received is based on the assumption that the mitigation strategies are assumed to be "low cost".

Even the ABC thinks the Commonwealth and state governments, and the relevant public servants, were responsible for letting the Wuhan Virus into Australia, when they failed to ban flights from China in January 2020:

Pandemic: The fight to contain coronavirus

Our leadership has attempted to portray the contagion in Australia as a Black Swan event. Unfortunately Nicholas Taleb, who coined the term, disagrees:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the best-selling author, trader and academic has criticised those who describe the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic as a “black swan” and condemned the US government’s recent stimulus measures.

Taleb rose to prominence after the global financial crisis of 2008, with his prescient book on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable events, The Black Swan, becoming an international bestseller.

In a recent piece co-authored with Mark Spitznagel, the former options trader describes the ongoing coronavirus outbreak as a “white swan: something that would eventually take place with great certainty.”

He adds: “Such [an] acute pandemic is unavoidable, the result of the structure of the modern world; and its economic consequences would be compounded because of the increased connectivity and over-optimisation.” Taleb points to his work for the government of Singapore, which had developed a precise plan “as early as 2010”.

The "Black Swan defence" was never tenable; Morrison & Co cannot escape liability by spending billions of our money in an attempt to conceal blame:

Australian medical experts assume social distancing is a LOW COST COVID-19/Wuhan Virus mitigation strategy: Morrison Govt must explain why public was not informed of the false assumption

END

TO BE READ WITH

Taleb: Covid-19 is not a ‘black swan’
By Lawrence GashMarch 27, 2020, 11:01 PM GMT+11

Author and trader warns against further corporate socialism
Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the best-selling author, trader and academic has criticised those who describe the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic as a “black swan” and condemned the US government’s recent stimulus measures.

Taleb rose to prominence after the global financial crisis of 2008, with his prescient book on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable events, The Black Swan, becoming an international bestseller.

In a recent piece co-authored with Mark Spitznagel, the former options trader describes the ongoing coronavirus outbreak as a “white swan: something that would eventually take place with great certainty.”

He adds: “Such [an] acute pandemic is unavoidable, the result of the structure of the modern world; and its economic consequences would be compounded because of the increased connectivity and over-optimisation.” Taleb points to his work for the government of Singapore, which had developed a precise plan “as early as 2010”.

While the city-state may be heading for its first recession in 20 years due to its exposure to the winds of global markets, Singapore has relatively few cases. By swiftly implementing strict border controls, rigorous testing and meticulous tracing of known carriers, the densely populated country of 5 million people, only has 683 confirmed cases and a total of two deaths.

Although Taleb recognises the need to save those leading American companies affected by the coronavirus outbreak, he states that there will be “ethical economic and structural problems associated with the details of the execution”.

Taleb questions why taxpayers should save firms which spent their cash on stock buybacks and observes: “Such bailouts punish those who acted conservatively and harms them in the long run, favouring the fool and the rent-seeker.”

Specifically, he stresses the need to learn from the bailout of 2008-9, which he dubs “a blatant case of corporate socialism” and to understand that “bailing out individuals based on their needs is not the same as bailing out corporations based on our need for them.”

In emphasising that, unlike major corporations, small businesses and the self-employed “cannot afford lobbyists and will be ignored”, it would appear that Taleb is not hopeful that the landmark $2trn stimulus package currently making its way through the US senate will be any different from those that went before.

FURTHER READING: Covid-19 pandemic to push Singapore into recession despite low number of infections

FURTHER READING: The black swan theory: What it is, and how to use it

Friday, April 3, 2020

Australian medical experts assume social distancing is a LOW COST COVID-19/Wuhan Virus mitigation strategy: Morrison Govt must explain why public was not informed of the false assumption

by Ganesh Sahathevan

"Anything it takes" Morrison may not have understood that the "best in the world" medical advice he received is based on the assumption that the mitigation strategies are assumed to be "low cost".

The social distancing strategy that the Australian state and Commonwealth Governments have determined we should all suffer in order to fight the Wuhan Virus is considered by experts to be a "low cost" alternative. As explained in the Medical Journal of Australia:

China appears to have constrained transmission of COVID-19 outside of Hubei Provence through rapid and intensive containment and mitigation interventions. Most countries only attempt social distancing and hygiene interventions when widespread transmission is apparent. This gives the virus many weeks to spread with a higher basic reproduction number (R0) than if they were in place before transmission was detected or widespread. Pre-emptive, low cost, hygiene enhancement and social distancing in the context of imminent community transmission of novel coronavirus COVID-19 should be considered. Early interventions to reduce the average frequency and intensity of exposure to the virus might reduce infection risk, reduce the average viral infectious dose of those exposed, and result in less severe cases who are less infectious. A pre-emptive phase would also assist government, workplaces, schools, and businesses to prepare for a more stringent phase. Countries, and subregions of countries, without recognised COVID-19 transmission should assume it is present and consider implementation of low cost enhanced hygiene and social distancing measures.

The above is the abstract from the article Pre-emptive low cost social distancing and enhanced hygiene implemented before local COVID-19 transmission could decrease the number and severity of cases by Craig B Dalton, Stephen J Corbett and Anthea L Katelaris published in Medical Journal Australia (published online on 18 March 2020.

The only significant costs the experts foresee is a loss of productivity from a work at home policy:
The suite of low cost pre-emptive interventions, other than a working from home policy, is unlikely to affect work productivity and may provide the community with some reassurance that all is being done to prevent the epidemic. Some may see it as an over-reach but thus far communities seem to accept or voluntarily adopt low cost interventions and acceptance may be enhanced through consultation and trust building.

Social distancing is recommended by the WHO, which is predictably silent on the matter of cost, but insists that it needs to "better educate" governments about their benefits:

Nonpharmaceutical interventions

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), also known as community mitigation strategies, are a critical tool for limiting the transmission and spread of influenza, allowing people to better protect themselves and others, and they are the first line of defence against influenza in all countries. NPIs are the most readily available set of interventions; they can be on the personal level (e.g. better hand washing or the use of facemasks) or on the community level (e.g. social distancing in schools, workplaces and events). During the 1918 pandemic, NPIs were the only available set of interventions; modern research on 1918 mortality data and experience with NPI implementation has provided historic evidence on the effectiveness of early, layered NPI implementation, even in the context of a severe and highly transmissible pandemic (43). Since the 2009 pandemic, a number of countries have fully integrated NPIs into their national influenza pandemic preparedness plans or published NPI guidelines. Additionally, there have been more contemporary studies to assess the effectiveness of NPIs. However, more attention is needed to better educate policy-makers about the benefits of NPIs and their role in national influenza prevention and control strategies.
(Global influenza strategy 2019-2030ISBN 978-92-4-151532-0)

It seems that "anything it takes" Morrison may not have understood that the "best in the world" medical advice he received with regards the Wuhan Virus is based on the assumption that the mitigation strategies are assumed to be "low cost".

END

Ruby Princess : Health Minister Brad Hazzard's angry defiance another example of Berejiklian Govt's evasion; Commissioner Fuller's findings likely to be irrelevant once class actions against government are commenced

by Ganesh Sahathevan

News.com.au has reported that NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard became "even more combative" when asked (correctly) why he should not resign. Evading questions by crying lack of courtesy, threat and intimidation seems to have become the usual way in which the Berejiklian Government deals with issues it would rather keep concealed.

The matter of her party and her government's dealings with Communist Party China linked Zhu Minshen and his Top Group is an example.

In the case of the Ruby Princess Premier Gladys Berejiklian has attempted to accuse the crew of the Ruby Princess of misleading NSW Health, and then directed the Commissioner of Police NSW Mick Fuller to investigate her allegations.

Regardless of what Commissioner Fuller concludes, lawyers, investigators and researchers working for claimants in likely class actions against the government for any loss, including loss of life, resulting from the Ruby Princess debacle, will conduct their own investigations.

They will conclude what they will, from the evidence they gather.

END

'Show a little courtesy': Hazzard defiant

Sam Clench

All of those earlier comments from NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard came during his initial statement. As the media conference continued and he took questions from journalists, things got even more combative.

"Explain to me how your resignation should not be on the Premier's desk right now," Channel 7's Denham Hitchcock said.

"Can I just say that the experts who made the decision were the best in the world. And the appropriate thing at this point is for the investigation to continue," the Minister said, referring to the investigation NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller is conducting into the Ruby Princess matter.

"Are you talking about the experts on the boat, or here? In your department, or on the boat?" Hitchcock followed up.

"The Health Department. I will take you through it, because it sounds like you don't actually know how it works," Mr Hazzard shot back.

"If you wouldn't mind showing a little courtesy, thank you very much," he said, as Hitchcock kept speaking.

Mr Hazzard said the decision to keep passengers on board ships or let them disembark was always a "balancing act".

"One issue that hasn't been picked up by the media, but which has been raised by the chief health officers involved in these processes – we all remember the Diamond Princess, when people were kept on board a ship and it was a disastrous outcome. And that operates in the mind of all the senior health officials across Australia. It is a balancing act," he said.

While sticking up for those officials, Mr Hazzard also made it clear that he himself had no role in the Ruby Princess decision.

"I think you have got to say, and I as Health Minister – same as the Premier and same as the Commissioner – we have to rely on the expertise on the health professionals," he said.

"I saw somewhere, somebody said I made the decision on the Ruby Princess. I didn't know anything about the Ruby Princess. I was dealing with all the other issues that were obviously being dealt with.

"Usually I start work here at 6am or 7am and finish close to midnight. I had no knowledge until the day after."

With that, he threw to Dr Chant, who gave reporters a breakdown of the decision-making process.

She said that while NSW Health knew there was a respiratory illness on the Ruby Princess, doctors on board the ship did not suspect coronavirus.

"Obviously if there are learnings and insights that we gather, those will be reflected," said Dr Chant.

"Just to be clear, there was nothing transmitted to that group of people that COVID was suspected by the doctor on the ship."

Crucially, the ship was given a "low" risk assessment.

"Can I just assure the public – because I think this is really critical – NSW Health had learned the lessons of the Diamond Princess, and had extensive planning under way to actually disembark people and passengers, should we suspect COVID-19 on a cruise ship," she continued.

"We had always planned to ensure self-isolation for people in the Sydney region.

"If we had known that COVID was on this ship, or had it been suspected, we would have chosen that way of disembarkation.

"While they were on the cruise ship, they were at risk of onward transmission amongst themselves.

"We would have got them off in a different way."

Dr Chant argued the vast majority of cases linked to the Ruby Princess involved people who were infected on board – and only 11 people so far have got the disease as a result of the decision to let it dock.

"Just to be clear, because I think it is really important. As I've indicated, for cases that we could have averted by decanting people in a more ordered way with face masks, and taking them directly to their homes, would have been in the order of 11," she said.

"The people that have acquired their infection on the cruise ship could not have been avoided, and every period of time that people were on that cruise ship, they were actually at risk of more transmission.

"The safest place for those passengers is off it.

"I just want to make it clear that the deaths and the cases on that cruise ship were acquired on that cruise ship."

Mr Hazzard jumped back in after that, getting the final word on the subject.

"I think the issue now is with the benefit of hindsight, people start drawing conclusions and say, 'Oh, he should have done this.' I actually think the health team we have is the world's best," he said.

"The questioning of that, to an extent, is valid, but it also has to be done in a temperate and sensible way.

"There's an assumption from you (reporters) and others that was was done is wrong."

Minister defends Ruby Princess decision

Sam Clench

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard also spoke at some length about the decision to allow the Ruby Princess cruise ship to dock in Sydney last month and unload 2700 passengers.

Hundreds of those passengers have since tested positive for the coronavirus, and seven of them have died.

A significant number of Australia's total confirmed cases – something in the region of 10 per cent – are linked to that single ship.

Understandably, this had led to criticism of NSW Health. But Mr Hazzard was defiant this morning.

He said the decision to allow the Ruby Princess to dock had been made by "the world's best" health experts.

"Today when I read some of the headlines, I have to say, my heart went out to those senior health staff," said Mr Hazzard.

"I have seen senior health staff – all I will say is that I have seen them extremely emotional because of the long hours they have worked and because of the challenges they are facing.

"I find it disappointing in the strongest way possible that there can be any suggestion that those people are not doing their best.

"In general terms, can I just say, this city of ours is the gateway to Australia. In normal times we pride ourselves on that. We believe that we actually do lead the way in this country, through Sydney and NSW. But part of that is we have more people coming through our airports and ports than any other state.

"We have more cruise ships that come through that port of Sydney than any other port in Australia. In a normal course of events there are about 300 of these cruise ships that come in through the port of Sydney every year, and sometimes it's more.

"The very senior health staff that make the assessments on those cruise ships are actually among the world's best. There are four, generally, involved in each decision. Four very senior health staff. They are specialist physicians, doctors with extraordinary training and experience in public health."

Mr Hazzard made a point of mentioning the state's chief health officer, Dr Kerry Chant, who was standing next to him. He said senior health staff like Dr Chant were working incredibly long hours to try to keep the community safe.

"I would say to all of you in the public – and actually it is not so much I think the public, there are others who are making comments – but I would say to the people who are being critical, know that these frontline staff are sometimes working, as Dr Chant did – she won't want me to say this, but last Saturday she worked for 31 straight hours before she stood before the media. She hadn't slept. People don't do that unless they have extraordinary commitment to all of us," said Mr Hazzard.

"What I would say to the community and to those who are leaping to criticise is, take a step back, and realise that we need every one of these people, who have worked their hearts out, worked every possible thing they could do to keep us safe, and we should be very temperate and careful in any criticism of those people.

"I think if the average person got some of the criticism that was being thrown at them, they would say, 'I am not doing this job anymore.' That is something we cannot afford to have. We need to make sure we are temperate and supportive of all these senior staff who are making these difficult decisions.

"I also want to point out that some of these staff have worked for between 10 and 30 years making these sorts of decisions. They bring to it the world's best expertise. In the case of one very senior person involved in the decision-making, he has actually made assessments on literally thousands of these ships.

"Cruise ships are always a challenge. Always a challenge. They can be great fun, but I think anyone who has been on one would know that we have regular outbreaks on cruise ships of issues like gastroenteritis, legionella, influenza, and we do need experts to be able to give the advice on how best to address those issues."

Singapore, HK and Taiwan began screening arrivals from Wuhan on 3 Jan 2020, but Australia did nothing ,and then very little, a month later :Brendan Murphy's strongest advice at the end of January concerned xenophobia

by Ganesh Sahathevan

Chief Medical Officer Professor Brendan Murphy speaks during a press conference updating on the novel coronavirus at Parliament House in Canberra. Source: AAP

From the Bloomberg story 1 Million People Infected: How Coronavirus Spread Around the World, by Rachel Chang:

By Jan. 3, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan -- Asian cities hit hard by the SARS pandemic -- institute fever screenings at airports for arrivals from Wuhan, a key transport and manufacturing hub for central China

Wuhan’s first known virus patient begins developing symptoms on Dec. 1, according to a paper published Jan. 24 in The Lancet medical journal. On Dec. 16, doctors at the Central Hospital of Wuhan send samples from another patient with a persistent fever for lab testing. Those results show a SARS-like virus and on Dec. 30 Ai Fen, the head of the hospital’s ER department, posts a picture of a lab report on Chinese social media, which is re-posted and circulated by several other doctors. They’re reprimanded by local police for “spreading rumors.”

In Australia on the other hand Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy was more concerned with other things, declaring that Australians were being racist and xenophobic for linking the coronavirus to anyone who appeared to be from China:

Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy has denounced the spread of racist prejudices towards Chinese-Australians as authorities continue to grapple with the impact of the new coronavirus.

His warning comes amid reports of shopping centres being deserted in areas with a strong concentration of people of Chinese-Australian heritage.

Mr Murphy said there was no reason for Australians to be wearing masks in public and urged against the outbreak fomenting racist attitudes.

Murphy must stand down and his advice to the Commonwealth investigated.
END

TO BE READ WITH

Saturday, March 14, 2020

Wuhan Virus: City of Sydney Lunar New Year 2020 Festival became an obvious security risk by mid-Jan if not earlier-NSW Premier to blame, but did Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy's politicking contribute to the debacle

by Ganesh Sahathevan

Chief Medical Officer Professor Brendan Murphy speaks during a press conference updating on the novel coronavirus at Parliament House in Canberra. Source: AAP

The City of Sydney Lunar New Year 2020 Festival became an obvious security risk by mid-January if not earlier when reports had already emerged of the Wuhan Virus' pandemic (even if it was not being described as such then).

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian must bear ultimate responsibility , but did the Commonwealth's Chief Medical Officer Officer Brendan Murphy's politicking contribute to the debacle ?

Readers will recall that in February Professor Murphy was admonishing Australians for being racist and xenophobic, instead of addressing the issue at hand ie the spread of the Wuhan Virus which now has this country facing a Wuhan style lockdown.

END

SEE ALSO

Saturday, January 25, 2020

City of Sydney Lunar New Year 2020 Festival became an obvious security risk by mid-Jan if not earlier, but no warning from NSW Emergency Management Committee, Clover Moore and no screening at airports

by Ganesh Sahathevan

Lunar Year 2020 banners in Martin Place

The City Of Sydney's annual Lunar New Year celebrations are designed to attract visitors from China. These probably add to the large number of visitors from China who arrive daily in Sydney via Sydney Airport.

On 22 January 2020 the WHO had advised:

On 31 December 2019, WHO was alerted to several cases of pneumonia in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. The virus did not match any other known virus. This raised concern because when a virus is new, we do not know how it affects people.

One week later, on 7 January, Chinese authorities confirmed that they had identified a new virus. The new virus is a coronavirus, which is a family of viruses that include the common cold, and viruses such as SARS and MERS. This new virus was temporarily named “2019-nCoV.”

NSW Emergency Management Committee is responsible for community safety but it does not seem to have had anything to say.The same can be said of the Mayor,Clover Moore, and the Premier NSW,Gladys Berejiklian.

Additionally, while airports in the US stared screening to coronavirus on or about 18 January 2020 and Thailand as early as 3 January 2020, Sydney and other Australian airports have only just started screening late last week.
All this despite having in Sydney an annual event designed to attract visitors from China. END

Did NSW Emergency Management Services ignore its own data, and fail to advise David Elliot of the likelihood of catastrophic bushfires? Chairperson Andrew Cappie-Wood's advise requires scrutiny

http://realpolitikasia.blogspot.com/2020/01/city-of-sydney-lunar-new-year-2020.html

Wednesday, April 1, 2020

While PM Morrison deploys the ADF against Australians, China continues its expansion in the South China Sea: Australia's "wartime" PM & Cabinet adding defence failure to their failure to prevent Wuhan Virus contagion,and the consequent economic disaster

by Ganesh Sahathevan

Red Flag: Impacts of Coronavirus in China and the World

Paramilitary policemen wear face masks as they march in formation
into a pedestrian underpass next to Tiananmen Square in Beijing,
Feb. 4, 2020.

Asia Times reported on 1 April 2020:

With the Covid-19 pandemic mostly contained in China and now wreaking havoc on the United States, security analysts are closely watching Beijing’s military moves in the hotly contested South China Sea.

In recent days, China has conducted military drills and deployed large-scale military assets to the maritime area while at the same time officially celebrating strides made in exploiting disputed energy resources in the fossil fuel-rich sea.

While some see China’s nationalistic messaging as a bid to rally its people during difficult Covid-19 times, others view the increasingly aggressive naval maneuvers as a bid to exploit America’s weakened condition to secure new advantage in the hot spot theater.

Rival Southeast Asian claimants are also in a compromised strategic position as they contend with worsening Covid-19 outbreaks.

In Australia other other hand , members of the Australian Defence Force are being deployed to enforce quarantine orders against Australian citizens. Federal and State leaders are obviously more interested in trying to conceal their error in failing to prevent the entry of visitors from China when the danger of the Wuhan Virus became apparent: