Singapore ,1 MDB,a change of leadership & the water agreements:Are the agreements so fraught with uncertainty that there could not have been a real agreement in the first place?

by Ganesh Sahathevan
In a paper titled Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the Johor River Basin researchers in Malaysia and the US concluded that their modelling showed climate could " lead to a projected annual streamflow ranging from 0.91 to 12.95% compared to the historical period."


It is likely that the Malaysia-Singapore Water agreements were based on historical flows that did not account for any future change in annual streamflow. Then, it is arguable that there could have been a contract or agreement at all, for all sides would have laboured under a false or incorrect factual basis.Put in other words, you cannot have a contract over something you assume will remain constant when it is  in fact be subject to change.

While this is only one study and its findings may well be disputed, it does raise the matter of uncertainty which appears to have been ignored. As previously mentioned, 

Singapore may even have to take blame for the impact of climate change on Malaysia's catchments

Assuming therefore that all matters concerning the supply of water might be resolved forever by favouring any one prime minister of Malaysia is an enterprise fraught with danger, for Singapore.

END 

Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the Johor River Basin, Malaysia using a CMIP5 General Circulation Model ensemble

Mou Leong Tan, Darren L. Ficklin, Ab Latif Ibrahim, Zulkifli Yusop

Published December 2014, 5 (4) 676-695; DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2014.020

• Article
•  PDF
• Info & Metrics

Abstract

The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) on streamflow in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia was assessed. Eighteen GCMs were evaluated, and the six that adequately simulated historical climate were selected for an ensemble of GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (moderate emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions)) for three future time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) as inputs into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. We also quantified the uncertainties associated with GCM structure, greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), and prescribed increases of global temperature (1–6 °C) through streamflow changes. The SWAT model simulated historical monthly streamflow well, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.66 for calibration and 0.62 for validation. Under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, the results indicate that annual precipitation changes of 1.01 to 8.88% and annual temperature of 0.60–3.21 °C will lead to a projected annual streamflow ranging from 0.91 to 12.95% compared to the historical period. The study indicates multiple climate change scenarios are important for a robust hydrological impact assessment.

• Received February 27, 2014.
• Accepted June 21, 2014.

• © IWA Publishing 2014

ABC World News says Malaysia's Najib Razak stole from 1 MDB: Will this be Turbull's Turtle Beach moment

As  reported by ABC World News, an interview with  WSJ Finance Editor Ken Brown:

"Our reporting has shown for months now that the money did not come from the Saudis, but it came via a bunch of companies and bank accounts related to 1MDB.

The allegation against Najib  has never been this direct. Is Turnbull now going to have to distance himself from his ABC, like Paul Keating:

Keating unloads on the Opposition as heirs to the old fogeys who grovelled to Britain (particularly in the context of the Curtin-Churchill row in World War II). Unfortunately, at the same time, Foreign Minister Gareth Evans is busy appeasing Malaysian PM Dr Mahathir by disassociating the Government from the film 'Turtle Beach', based on Blanche D'Alpuget's book about the suffering of Vietnamese boat-people who washed up on the coast of of Malaysia in the late 1970's.--Information provided by Geoff Pryor.

WSJ refutes AG's Saudi donation claim

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Published Today 6:30 pm     Updated Today 7:07 pm      7 comments

  

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has refuted attorney-general Mohamad Apandi Ali's claim that the money deposited into Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak's private accounts was a donation from the Saudi royal family.

Its finance editor Ken Brown said this in an interview with ABC News Australia on Feb 12.

"Our reporting has shown for months now that the money did not come from the Saudis, but it came via a bunch of companies and bank accounts related to 1MDB.

“And you know, our story hasn't been called into question yet, and we have loads of evidence to back that up," he told ABC's Beverley O'Connor

Brown, who is also WSJ's Hong Kong bureau chief, reiterated the publication's stand that the monies deposited into Najib's private accounts ultimately originated from 1MDB.

Commenting on the Apandi's recent proposal to increase the punishment for those who leak state secrets, Brown believes that it is related to attempts by the Malaysian government to put the lid on the whole affair, amid "tightening restrictions on speech", as well as threats to any who spoke against the government.

"It's no surprise that it came after attempts by the government to say this money that went to the PM's bank accounts came from Saudi Arabia. The reality is no one really believes that; they got a big backlash on that. So now they come up and say now everyone can't speak on it," he said.

He believes that the Malaysian government is trying to limit discussion on the matter because the more the information comes out, the worse it gets for the government.

Brown also said although the prime minister appears to be consolidating power – clamping down on critics and getting away with it – the real action will come once overseas investigations into the matter unearth more damning evidence.

"Real action in the next few months will be in the overseas investigations and if they find real serious stuff, it will be hard for the Malaysians to ignore it," said Brown.

WSJ broke the news last year on the alleged financial improprieties involving sovereign fund 1MDB, linking the firm to movements of funds allegedly involving Najib and an alleged election slush fund.

Najib has denied the donation came from 1MDB and had sent a legal letter to WSJ to ask if it meant what it published.

He has not yet commenced legal proceedings against the business paper after it replied that it stands by its reporting.

Currently, the United Kingdom, the US, Switzerland, Singapore, and Hong Kong authorities are looking into the 1MDB affair though Najib has not been named in any of the investigations as yet.

Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/330908#ixzz40W8McFih

Singapore ,1 MDB,a change of leadership & the water agreements:Singapore may even have to take blame for the impact of climate change on Malaysia's catchments

by Ganesh Sahathevan 


As reported earlier: 

Singapore & 1 MDB: Change of leadership may mean an adverse review of unsustainable water agreements

It is the Singapore Government that has nominated climate change as a matter of national concern.

Indeed, it does look as if the Singapore Government has admitted that climate change has been responsible for at least the current failure of a catchment facility it proposed and built in Malaysia:

Singapore ,1 MDB,a change of leadership & the water agreements: A public admission from Singapore that the water agreements are not sustainable

Adding to the issues Singapore will have to face is this finding that development in Singapore may be having an impact on rising temperature in Johor Bahru during the monsoon seasons: 

ICUC9 - 9th International Conference on Urban Climate jointly with 12th Symposium on the Urban EnvironmentInteraction of Singapore and Johor Bahru on Urban Climateduring Monsoon Seasons 

 1. Introduction Urban development in rapidly urbanizing regions, such as Southeast Asia, requires comprehensive planning and consideration of local characteristics. Tropical and subtropical cities, with their high temperatures and humidity, are particularly affected by increasing air temperature in relatively densely built-up areas. Increase in air temperature is in turn associated with higher cooling loads and hence higher energy consumption (Santamouris et al., 2001). Many major cities developed therefore strategies to ensure sustainable urban development. However, in regard to urban climate, proposed development strategies are limited to the borders of the city or the country. A comprehensive understanding of interactions between two major cities on their urban climate needs further investigation. This study aims to assess the interaction between the development in Singapore and Johor Bahru on urban climate and formation of Urban Heat Island (UHI). Despite relatively low wind speed, the characteristic wind flow pattern in this region is expected to impact the occurrence of UHIs in Singapore and Johor Bahru and provide some understanding on cross-boundary mitigation strategies. Johor Bahru is located in the southern-most tip of Peninsular Malaysia and is the second largest city after Kuala Lumpur. Singapore is a city-state, located on an island south of Johor Bahru. Both cities are separated by the Strait of Johor (see figure 1). Recently, Johor Bahru is experiencing rapid development in the course of the implementation of the Comprehensive Development Plan (CDP) 2006. The CDP proposes strategic interventions to promote economic growth and improve quality of life in South Johor. Singapore, in contrast, almost reached its physical limits for further development. By 2030, Singapore will develop about 7.3% of land to meet its future land requirements. The wind flow over Peninsular Malaysia is determined by southwest and northeast monsoon, and by intermonsoon seasons. From June to September, southwesterly winds prevail, whereas from November to March the prevailing wind direction is northeast. In the intermonsoon season, wind flow is light and variable. Uniform and periodic changes of wind flow during summer and winter were of particular interest for this study. 

4. Conclusion 

The assessment of the current development in JB and Singapore shows an impact on the urban climate and UHI. Various factors including geographic location, seasonal wind changes, and urban morphology of both cities result in a unique constellation which affects the air temperature in the CBD of JB and Singapore. Despite a constant cool sea breeze during the SW-monsoon, cooler air temperature in the city center of JB cannot be observed. In case of Singapore, there is a clear indication of sea breeze effect that reduces the air temperature along the southern coast of Singapore below the values in rural areas. Comprehensive regional planning, including JB and Singapore may benefit future development of this metropolitan region by taking into account the building and street layout and the prevailing wind directions during the dominate monsoon seasons. Further research on the urban scale may results in findings that contribute to sustainable urban development of JB and Singapore.

AND, climate has been found to have an impact on the flows and evaporation rates of the Johor River Basin ,from which Singapore draws its water:

Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques (Impact Factor: 1.55). 09/2014; 60(5). DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2014.967246

ABSTRACT

This study aims to investigate separate and combined impacts of land-use and climate changes on hydrological components in the Johor River Basin (JRB), Malaysia. The Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test were applied to detect the trends in precipitation, temperature and streamflow of JRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated using measured monthly streamflow data. Validation results supported that SWAT was reliable in the tropical JRB. The trend analysis showed that there was an insignificant increasing trend for streamflow, whereas significant increasing trends for precipitation and temperature were found. The combined (land-use + climate change) impact caused the annual streamflow and evaporation to increase by 4.4% and 1.2%, respectively. Climate (land-use) raised annual streamflow by 4.4% (0.06%) and evaporation by 2.2% (−0.2%).Climate change imposed a stronger impact than land-use change on the streamflow and evaporation. These findings are useful for decision makers to develop better water and land-use policies.

Impacts of land-use and climate variability on hydrological components in the Johor River basin, Malaysia (PDF Download Available). Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266616485_Impacts_of_land-use_and_climate_variability_on_hydrological_components_in_the_Johor_River_basin_Malaysia [accessed Feb 14, 2016].

END 

Singapore ,1 MDB,a change of leadership & the water agreements: A public admission from Singapore that the water agreements are not sustainable

by Ganesh Sahathevan
In this post earlier in the week evidence was provided to show that the Singapore-Malaysia water agreements will need to reviewed, regardless of any arrangement the Government of Singapore may come to with  Najib Razak, the 65 year old  current prime minister of Malaysia.\:

Singapore & 1 MDB: Change of leadership may mean an adverse review of unsustainable water agreements

It has since come to this writer's attention that the issues raised in the above post had in fact been aired via  the Government owned and controlled Straits Times ,where the public have been warned :

The heavy rain and subsequent floods in Johor Baru are in a different catchment area from the Linggiu Reservoir, which is further upstream. While there has been some rain in the Linggiu Reservoir catchment, the water levels remain largely the same, at around 43 per cent.

In photos posted last Friday( November 13,2015, on the Facebook page of Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Masagos Zulkifli  )  the water level at the Linggiu Reservoir was shown to have dropped significantly. 

The water level at the reservoir is at its lowest due to low rainfall and this in turn impacts how much Singapore can draw from the Johor River. Singapore can tap 250 million gallons of water a day from the river, which can meet up to 60 per cent of the country's needs.

PUB said that from January to last month, there were about 100 times when Singapore was temporarily unable to withdraw water from the river .


Last week, Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Masagos Zulkifli said if the situation does not improve, more may have to be done to conserve water. This includes restricting, for the first time, the use of water for non-essential activities such as washing cars and operating water fountains.


(See full story below).


The probability that Singapore is trying to do what it can to ignore the 1 MDB scandal in order to secure its future supply of water via some agreement with Najib Razak, as foolhardy as that may seem, is greater given this admission.Readers are reminded that the Government of Singapore has for more than a decade boasted that it is self-sufficient with regards its need for water.
This Straits Times headline from 2014 is but one example:

Saying goodbye to water woes-Treated used water is helping Singapore achieve near self-sufficiency

END 

JB downpour fails to raise reservoir level

PUBLISHED

NOV 18, 2015, 5:00 AM SGT

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823S'pore may cut water use if Johor reservoir level stays low

Carolyn Khew

Monday's two-hour downpour which caused massive floods in parts of Johor Baru has done little to raise historically low water levels in the Linggiu Reservoir - a key cog in Singapore's water supply.

National water agency PUB said it will continue to monitor the situation closely, and Singaporeans will be told early if there is a need to restrict water use here.

"The heavy rain and subsequent floods in JB are in a different catchment area from the Linggiu Reservoir, which is further upstream," a PUB spokesman told The Straits Times yesterday. "While there has been some rain in the Linggiu Reservoir catchment, the water levels remain largely the same, at around 43 per cent."

The water level at the reservoir is at its lowest due to low rainfall and this in turn impacts how much Singapore can draw from the Johor River. Singapore can tap 250 million gallons of water a day from the river, which can meet up to 60 per cent of the country's needs.

PUB said that from January to last month, there were about 100 times when Singapore was temporarily unable to withdraw water from the river .

In photos posted last Friday, the water level at the Linggiu Reservoir was shown to have dropped significantly. FACEBOOK PAGE OF MASAGOS ZULKIFLI

LITTLE RAIN IN CATCHMENT

The heavy rain and subsequent floods in Johor Baru are in a different catchment area from the Linggiu Reservoir, which is further upstream. While there has been some rain in the Linggiu Reservoir catchment, the water levels remain largely the same, at around 43 per cent.

PUB SPOKESMAN

Last week, Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Masagos Zulkifli said if the situation does not improve, more may have to be done to conserve water. This includes restricting, for the first time, the use of water for non-essential activities such as washing cars and operating water fountains.

Senior research fellow Cecilia Tortajada, from the Institute of Water Policy at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said that if the reservoir water levels do not improve by next month despite the north-east monsoon, which is expected to set in then, such restrictions may have to kick in.

"It would send a clear message to the population that there is a limit to how much water is available and that it needs to be conserved, even after the monsoon season starts," she said, pointing out that many cities around the world enforce water restrictions during the dry season.

The reservoir was built in 1994 by Singapore. It keeps sea water out of the Johor River by releasing water into it. This ensures that the river water is not too salty to be treated by the Singapore-run treatment plant there.

PUB has been running desalination and Newater plants at high capacity to keep local reservoir stocks healthy. Currently, Singapore's four Newater plants can meet up to 30 per cent of the nation's water needs. PUB hopes to expand this to 55 per cent by 2060. PUB also aims to build two more desalination plants. Currently, desalination or treated sea water can meet up to 25 per cent of Singapore's needs.

Professor Asit Biswas, distinguished visiting professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said Singapore needs to think seriously about developing a long-term, drought-resistance plan.

With climate change and multi-year droughts in countries like Australia, there is a very high probability that the region may be hit by a prolonged multi-year drought within the next two to four decades, and not just one lasting a few months, he said.

He also added that Singaporeans may have taken a reliable water supply for granted, pointing out that water-rationing last took place here from April 1963 to February 1964.

Prof Biswas said: "More than a generation has now grown up without having faced a serious drought needing water-rationing."

Singapore's local banks facing crisis LKY warned of in '99,when he warned also of local banks clinging to their Chinese culture

by Ganesh Sahathevan

The Australian Financial Review published an op-ed on 10 February 2016 which declared.
Forget about Europe, investor tips Singapore banking crisis.

While this may be news to analysts and policy makers whose perception of Singapore goes no farther than its clean streets, ,it was none other than Lee Kuan Yew himself who warned in 1999  that the country's locally owned banks (private and government) were "headed down the hill".

His stinging rebuke of the country's bankers was delivered  in a speech to the Singapore  parliament on  6 May1999, the  best parts of which are reproduced here: 

 So where is the ability of the Singapore Government to protect our four big banks? It will be gone in 10 years or less. So unless we move forward, and fast, we are wiped out. We will be marginalised, and marginal players in our own domestic base.

We will be like New Zealand. They have been wiped out. There is not a New Zealand-owned bank that can back the New Zealand economy if it runs into trouble.

...... to play in this global market, you must have talent of a global standard.  

 Yes, we have good bankers. But....... Singapore banks are thriving (not) because they are wonderful bankers (but because)  I protected them .... I prevented the foreign banks from opening branches and having ATMs, and allowed Singapore banks to place their ATMs and their branches throughout all the HDB estates, and they grew. And now they have become important financial international institutions for us. But if they continue to play in that league, we will be wiped out.

I have spoken to the bankers for the last six, seven years to move, but they have run in the same old way, too comfortable, please give us more time. And they did nothing in that time until we decided to move and we said, "Right, we will move. DBS and POSBank with the top management will take over your business." That forced OCBC to start looking, to upgrade it management. It wanted a Chinese because it thinks it is important that the Chinese culture in the bank must not be upset; hunted and found Mr Alex Au, who made Hang Seng Bank a success in Hong Kong, and was taken by StanChart in London. They brought him back here. But it is more than one man. Neither Alex Au nor Mr John Olds can succeed unless they find a team to inject into every department the level of expertise that we will require to meet the competition. Ten years ago, if you had asked me, I would say we were doing not badly in banking. Now I am convinced we are headed down the hill.

END 

PM Najib's NR1 makes lightning visit to Kuala Lumpur, and returns to Singapore very early Tuesday morning

by Ganesh Sahathevan

PM Najib's official plane, callsign November Romeo 1, left Singapore early Monday morning (Malaysian time) having been on the ground at Changi, and possibly Batam, for just under 24 hours.

NR 1 appears now to have left Kuala Lumpur at around 1 am this morning (Tuesday, 9 February 2016) ,headed south again.The flight path shows that it is likely to have been headed for  Changi or Batam. 

These now repeated, frequent and sudden visits come at a critical point of time in Singapore's ongoing investigation into the 1 MDB saga. It is becoming more likely  that these trips  related to the 1 MDB matter.

Saturday, February 6, 2016

PM Najib's NR1 makes lightning weekend trip to Singapore:Singapore Government's 1 MDB cover-up no longer tenable

by Ganesh Sahathevan

Malaysian PM Najib has made an unexpected quick trip to Singapore, arriving at Changi Airport 

on Saturday afternoon at approximately 3 pm in the afternoon. The Airbus 319 ,call sign NR1 appears to have come down from somewhere off the east coast of the peninsular,from where it overflew Batam enroute Changi Airport.

This sudden visit comes at a critical point of time in Singapore's ongoing investigation into 

the 1 MDB saga. It is fair to assume that this sudden lightning visit is related to the 1 MDB matter.

Reference 

Successful prosecution of Gerald Fernandez & Fr Joachim Kang suggests that Singapore's prosecution of Yak Yew Chee & 1 MDB theft is not credible

Singapore Government can no longer pretend that Najib Razak is not a person of interest : Singapore cannot say it does not know where US$530 million went to