WHO's flu virus strategy based on one research paper analysing controls in the US in 1918: Research assumed social distancing has no economic costs

by Ganesh Sahathevan



Social distancing is a nonpharmaceutical interventions recommended by the WHO (which is silent on the matter of cost) in its Global Influenza Strategy 2019-2030:


Nonpharmaceutical interventions 

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), also known as community mitigation strategies, are a critical tool for limiting the transmission and spread of influenza, allowing people to better protect themselves and others, and they are the first line of defence against influenza in all countries. NPIs are the most readily available set of interventions; they can be on the personal level (e.g. better hand washing or the use of facemasks) or on the community level (e.g. social distancing in schools, workplaces and events). During the 1918 pandemic, NPIs were the only available set of interventions; modern research on 1918 mortality data and experience with NPI implementation has provided historic evidence on the effectiveness of early, layered NPI implementation, even in the context of a severe and highly transmissible pandemic (43).
(Global influenza strategy 2019-2030ISBN 978-92-4-151532-0)


The research that the WHO has relied on is authored by
Markel and others and is titled  Nonpharmaceutical interventions implemented by US cities during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic. 

The research assumes that social distancing is costless,
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